Escalation in the Middle East: US and Israel launch attack on Iran

_ 2026-02-28_ Thorsten Muth

Escalation in the Middle East: US and Israel launch attack on Iran

On Saturday morning (28 February), the US, together with Israel, attacked military targets in Iran. Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East. Overview and analysis by Thorsten Muth and Mirko Jacubowski.

Last Updates (10 March, 1:30 pm UTC)

Smoke clouds over several Iranian cities: In the early morning of 28 February 2026, Israeli and US forces launched coordinated air and missile strikes on military infrastructure, government targets and strategic facilities in Iran. The offensive was met with massive counterattacks by Iranian forces, which fired on targets in the Persian Gulf and Israel. US President Trump initially stated that the war could last ‘four to five’ weeks, but on Monday (9 March) claimed that the fighting could end very soon. On Thursday (5 March), 15,000 cruise passengers and 20,000 crew members were still stranded in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, the military escalation between the US and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other continues unabated, accompanied by intensified counterattacks with growing impact on civilian structures and aid routes. The situation remains dynamic. Here is an overview of the most important incidents:

• Iran: The bombardment of targets in the capital Tehran and other cities across the country continues unabated. Iranian authorities have reported over 1,200 deaths (10 March) so far.

Information on leaving the country via land borders: Departure to Turkey is possible at the border crossings Gürbulak/Bazargan, Kapıköy/Razi and Esendere/Serow. Departure to Armenia (Agarak/Norduz) is also possible. The land borders with Azerbaijan are closed from the Azerbaijani side, but foreigners can exit via the Astara border crossing. In this case, the relevant foreign mission in Baku must be contacted in all cases. A special permit from the Turkmen government is required to leave the country for Turkmenistan. Leaving the country via Pakistan and Afghanistan is not recommended.

• Israel: In recent days, both Iran and Hezbollah have fired hundreds of rockets and drones at targets in Israel. Numerous people have already been killed in attacks on Tel Aviv, Petach Tikva, Jerusalem, Haifa, Beit Shemesh and Beersheba. On Tuesday (10 March), several rockets were fired at Israel. According to Iranian state media, an oil refinery near Haifa was hit.

• Lebanon: Following Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel, Israeli forces intensified their bombing of southern Lebanon on Monday (2 March). Israeli ground troops advanced into Lebanese territory on Tuesday (3 March) with the aim of establishing a buffer zone. The south of Beirut has also been heavily bombed since Wednesday (4 March), and according to AFP, residents of several areas in Tyros and Sidon were ordered to evacuate on Tuesday (10 March) due to imminent attacks. So far, nearly 400 deaths have been reported in Lebanon as a result of Israeli shelling.

• United Arab Emirates: On Saturday (28 February), the Fairmont The Palm Hotel (Dubai) was hit by Iranian missiles. Dubai International Airport (DXB) and the Al Salam naval base in Abu Dhabi were also targeted in the attacks. Passengers on the cruise ship ‘Mein Schiff 4’ were among those who witnessed the missiles; and the travellers are still stranded in the Gulf. Missile attacks and explosions from air defences could still be heard in Dubai on Tuesday morning (10 March, local time). A missile struck an industrial area.

• Katar: German holidaymakers remain stranded on a cruise ship (’Mein Schiff 5″) in Qatar on Tuesday (10 March), but evacuation efforts have begun. According to the website (10 March, 10 a.m. local time), the international airport (DOH) has been reopened on a limited basis, including for repatriation flights.

• Bahrain: The US naval base in Manama was attacked on Sunday (1 March), and the international airport (BAH) and numerous other targets were also fired upon. The country’s airspace remained closed on Tuesday (10 March).

• Irak: In northern Iraq (especially in Erbil and Sulaymaniyya), Iranian attacks on US and Kurdish targets are increasing. The Iraqi army has reinforced its positions along the Iranian border and, according to its own statements, wants to prevent a new front from emerging there. Reports that Kurdish ground troops were preparing for an operation in Iran were denied by the US last week. Iraqi airspace will remain closed until Friday noon (13 March, local time).

• Azerbaijan: Two Iranian drones crashed on Thursday (5 March) in the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, which lies between Iran and southern Armenia. One of the objects hit the airport (NAJ), while the other reportedly hit a school in Shekerabad. Azerbaijan responded by putting its troops on alert and closing the country’s southern airspace. Some experts believe that Iran wanted to use the attack to provoke an airspace closure that would further restrict air traffic between Europe and Asia.

^{Source: Flightradar24.com}

• Saudi Arabia: Explosions could already be heard east of the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday (1 March). Saudi army bases were deliberately targeted during the clashes, and the kingdom put its troops on high alert. On Tuesday (3 March), two Iranian drones attacked the US embassy in Riyadh, and a week later (10 March), missiles were intercepted in Saudi airspace.

• Oman: German tour groups were initially stranded in Oman, and later joined by more foreign travellers who had been evacuated from the UAE by bus. Evacuation flights from Muscat to Frankfurt also took place on Tuesday (10 March). Last week’s Iranian attacks hit the port of Duqm, among other targets.

• Kuwait: In Kuwait, the national air defence forces shot down three US fighter jets on Sunday (1 March) following a misunderstanding. Several US soldiers and Kuwaiti civilians have been killed by Iranian missiles so far.

• Jordan: In Jordan, things remained remarkably calm at first. According to media reports on Tuesday (3 March), British RAF aircraft shot down several Iranian drones in Jordanian airspace on Monday night (9 March, local time), a German army camp was also targeted by ballistic missiles.

How to assess the current situation

Kommentar von Mirko Jacubowski.

The death of Ali Khamenei marks a historic turning point. For decades, he shaped the Islamic Republic ideologically and strategically. His passing opens a period of significant uncertainty regarding succession and the country’s future political direction.

A regime change brought about solely by airstrikes, however, remains unlikely. Without a fragmentation of the security apparatus — particularly the Revolutionary Guards — a genuine political transformation is improbable. At the same time, a fundamental realignment of Iran was virtually impossible under his rule. His departure may at least open a new window of opportunity. Technically, the constitutional process предусматриes succession through the Assembly of Experts, but in practice, decisions are made within a narrow inner circle of power.

Militarily, Tehran has responded to the death of its leader with rocket and drone attacks on Israel and several Gulf and neighboring states, including strikes on U.S. bases — triggering sirens in Israel and alarming local populations. These attacks have been sharply condemned by several Arab states, as they are seen as violations of sovereignty and as increasing the risk of further escalation.

An immediate collapse of the regime, however, is considered unlikely. The Revolutionary Guards wield substantial political, military, and economic influence and have a strong interest in maintaining stability. A more probable scenario would initially involve internal recalibration and a shift in the balance of power — possibly through an interim arrangement or a rapid appointment designed to demonstrate continuity.

Overall, Khamenei’s death marks the end of an era. Whether this leads to genuine structural change will depend decisively on internal power constellations. Even if the system endures, Iran’s domestic and foreign policy orientation could shift noticeably — not least because its regional actions have brought not only adversaries but growing isolation.

How long the current war will last cannot be predicted with any degree of seriousness. Donald Trump has explicitly preserved strategic flexibility, allowing him to adapt to developments. He could halt operations within days and declare the nuclear and missile threat neutralized, leaving the future to the Iranian people. Alternatively, he could continue for weeks in pursuit of decisive regime change. The path chosen may also be influenced by domestic political perceptions within the United States, particularly among the MAGA base.

One point, however, remains clear: the current situation can be traced directly back to Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. While its original objective may have been to weaken Israel’s existence, it instead acted as a catalyst for further conflicts that produced the opposite effect. It intensified Israel’s offensive against Iranian allies, undermined Iran’s network of influence in Syria, Lebanon, and elsewhere, and thereby indirectly weakened the so-called “Axis of Resistance” alliance.

Background: How the escalation developed

Today’s attacks followed a period of escalating tensions: In the weeks leading up to the attack, the US had massively reinforced its military footprint in the Middle East, deploying several aircraft carrier strike groups, fighter jets, and support forces to the region. These were the largest US troop movements since the 2003 Iraq War. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement in the nuclear dispute failed. Washington demanded restrictions on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while Tehran rejected more far-reaching demands and, in turn, demonstrated its military strength, including through maneuvers by the Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz. Several countries had already urged their citizens to leave Iran and Israel before the attack – a clear signal of the anticipated escalation.

Federal Foreign Office warns:

Travelers are strongly advised to carefully check the current safety information before traveling.

What the current confrontation means

Today’s escalation marks the beginning of a new phase of regional uncertainty and global repercussions. Should Tehran continue its announced retaliatory strikes, US military bases, Israeli infrastructure, and regional allies could become targets of further attacks. Asymmetric reactions by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon cannot be ruled out either, which could further destabilize the situation. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical risk point: any disruption through military action or blockades would have an immediate impact on energy prices, global supply chains, and economic stability. Numerous countries and airlines have already suspended flights throughout the region, which will significantly affect international travel between Europe and Asia. Whether this is a limited military operation or the beginning of a broader confrontation depends largely on Iran’s subsequent response and the dynamics of international mediation efforts.

The UN Security Council will most likely once again become the center of geopolitical disputes and diplomatic bloc formations, although it remains largely unclear what role the “Board of Peace” established by US President Trump might play. What is completely unclear, however, is what goal Trump is pursuing with today’s attacks. The deployment of American ground troops is not planned, especially since they are not part of the current military buildup around the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime shows no major cracks that would indicate the current leadership is about to step down. Will the Iranian population, given the loss of many thousands of lives, be willing to take to the streets again? At least one of these factors would have to be present to force a regime change. Only the developments of the next seven days will reveal what happens next in Iran.